Crude at $100 likely to push CPI by 60 bps, delay rate cut
Financial Express Mumbai|April 16, 2024
THE PROBABILITY OF Brent crude price touching $100 a barrel in the backdrop of escalation of tensions in West Asia and remaining at that level in the near term could seriously alter key macro indicators.
PRIYANSH VERMA ARUNIMA BHARADWAJ

According to an FE analysis and estimates by economists, crude at $100 could push up CPI inflation by 60 basis points (bps) from the RBI estimate which pegged oil at $85, assuming full pass-through to retail consumers of auto fuels. It could also inflate the oil import bill by $2.5-3 billion and increase fertiliser subsidy for FY25 by at least 5% from the Budget estimate of 1.64 trillion.

Oil around $100 could likely delay the beginning of the rate cut cycle by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "If crude oil prices sustain higher than $100/bbl, it can delay monetary policy easing beyond Q3FY25," said Dhiraj Nim, economist, ANZ Banking Group.

A $100/bbl price of crude, or India's crude oil basket, will lead to a rise in inflation, decline in growth and widening of both current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit, say economists.

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