We could expect East Asia to spring some surprises in 2025

China, Hong Kong and Vietnam will be under watch for a reason

- Shuli Ren

From China's stock rout to the unwind of the yen-funded carry trade, whose participants, according to some, "eat like a bird and poop like a cow," 2024 was full of surprises. No one expects 2025 to be less exciting. Here are five unlikely-but-not-improbable events that you might want to consider.

Hong Kong property tycoon's debt workout: Its billionaire families are losing their prestige as a property downturn persists. The question is whether its tycoons will support their listed subsidiaries. Will they use some of the billions earned in the past to make investors whole? The Cheng family's New World Development, which has about $4.5 billion of perpetual bonds outstanding, is in the spotlight. Investors are worried the indebted developer may not call its 6.15% notes next June, or worse, defer all coupon payments.

While it's well within New World's right not to exercise the call, a decision not to repay creditors will send shockwaves across Hong Kong's financial circles. Bankers will get nervous, rumors of a debt restructuring at New World will linger on trading floors, and smaller developers will feel the spillover.