Climate Trends to Shape 2025

Coal-Black Swans: With Rising Demand, Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Make Comeback

From record solar installations to rising electric vehicle sales, the world is in many ways ramping up the fight against global warming.

Yet there are coal-black swans waiting to disrupt the green transition this year. From the US to Japan, power demand is expected to significantly increase as data centers demand more electricity for artificial intelligence. This is forcing some utilities to rethink the phase-out dates of their fossil-fuel power stations. (It's also causing nuclear energy to have a revival too.)

All of this is happening as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. Trump has already promised to end what he calls Washington's "green new scam." On day one he's pledged to scrap offshore wind projects, which would be another blow to an industry plagued by bottlenecks. He's also vowed to abandon the Paris Agreement, which calls for nations to limit global warming to ideally 1.5°C before the end of the century.

Even before Trump enters the White House, the planet is showing worrying vital signs with scientists virtually certain 2024 was the warmest year on record and the first in which global temperature rise exceeded 1.5°C.

What more can we expect in 2025? Along with BloombergNEF analysts, we have selected 15 trends that will shape the future of the planet this year.

Solar installation rate slows

The solar market grew by 35% in 2024, but BloombergNEF expects global installations to only increase by 11% this year. As solar makes up a bigger proportion of countries' electricity mix, networks will struggle to integrate surplus daytime power into their grids. Still, solar will remain the largest source of new generation added to grids around the world in 2025.

Coal gets a life extension