Voting behaviour shift makes election less predictable

S polls are predictive to the extent that voting behaviour within groups remains relatively stable.

- KATHRYN KURE

This is not just about who people vote for, but even if certain groups of people vote at all and, if so, what proportion votes. When changes occur faster than the models can account for, then the polls are more indicative than predictive, much as a litmus test can let you know if something is tending towards acid or alkaline, or neutral.

While most polls in the US have kept iterating that the race is too close to call, I argue that the current polls are insufficiently predictive, given some big changes in voting behaviour within some key – and unexpected – groups.

I believe that Gen Z is being under-sampled in relation to two factors.

First, their voting history as a group, say 18–29-year-olds, has historically not been stellar, but has been stable over time.

Second, they tend to screen calls so those who do answer the pollsters are possibly not representative of the group.