IRAN'S NEXT MOVE IS KEY TO MIDDLE EAST ESCALATION

There is a wide asymmetry in the conventional combat capability including nuclear arsenal) ofan Israel backed by the US and Iran along with its proxies, therefore Iran has been more comfortable in fighting a war through its regional proxies instead of a direct confrontation.

- MAJOR GENERAL S.B. ASTHANA RETD

BACKDROP

A series of successful strikes on commanders of Iranian proxies in Tehran and Beirut has escalated tensions in the Middle East. The sequence of events indicates more professional strategy of Israelis in targeting the commanders, which is certainly better than mass punishments of Palestinians.The ball is currently in the court of Iran, which is evaluating options to recover from the embarrassment of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh who was in Iran as a guest. Although few interim exchanges have taken place between Hezbollah and Israel, and a US strike on Iraqi non state actor and retaliation in US base, post assassination, but these are routine exchanges as major retaliation is yet to come.Iran's next could shape the future escalation dynamics of the region.

THE ASSASSINATION DRIVE

Israel has not owned its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, while the United States has announced that it was neither informed, nor was it involved in it. But the Iranians have assumed it to be a successful covert operation by Israelispy agency Mossad.

While the ownership of the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in southern Beirut, Ali Nazih Abed Ali a senior officer in southwestern Lebanon, Hamas leader Mohammad Deif in Gaza and some Iranian Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) Commanders in Syria is well established, it's the assassination of Haniyeh that is the most important trigger for escalation, where Israel is exercising the option of plausible deniability.