Sky's the limit

As aviation heads for a new boom, flying's CO₂-emission facts are stark.

- Andrea Graves

Exciting news: soon we will be flying sustainably. Visits to snowy Northern Hemisphere mountains and glaciers could be possible without the sickening sense that we've hastened their melting.

Slow down. Aviation still burns a lot of oil. Despite recent news of funding to scrutinise the feasibility of Kiwi-made sustainable aviation fuel, guilt-free flying is far from imminent. That's according to recent publications co-authored by Robert McLachlan, an applied mathematician at Massey University who specialises in mathematical modelling.

The international aviation industry is aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and last year published Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible, An industry-backed, 1.5°C-aligned transition strategy. It offers mostly techno-fixes: fuel efficiency, sustainable aviation fuel and aircraft powered by batteries or hydrogen.

Rousing publicity accompanies the prospect of electric and hydrogen-powered planes even though they're predicted to account for only 11% of the 2050 goal. They scarcely feature until 2040 and only tiny electric planes yet exist.