Despite lower mortality rates than other recent epidemics, the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and consumer markets has the potential to be significant for many reasons:
Geographic spread
Contagiousness
Weak global economy
The impact on China Known
Learnings from the Epidemic
Financial markets conditions worsened after COVID-19 entered Italy and as it entered USA, the situation grew worse.
Learning: Uncertainty about future recovery and financial shocks could exacerbate the crisis. The length of time it takes to recover has an impact on long term output, productivity, and consumer habits.
What is Different: A complete halt in many sectors across countries is unprecedented. The COVID-19 pandemic crisis is in the real economy and present globally.
Economic Outlook
Global GDP will contract sharply in 2020:
The COVID-19 pandemic has an enormous impact on the global economy.
COVID-19 will severely impact both the supply and demand sides of the economy.
Countries turn to substantial fiscal policies.
Our baseline forecast for global real economic growth in 2020 ranges from -1.5% to -4%, the lowest since the WWII
How is demand affected?
Stockpiling
Social distancing
Uncertainty about the future
Household and business financial constraints
How is supply affected?
Supply chain disruptions
Factory closures
Uncertainty over the length of the restrictions
Stockpiling by consumers
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