THE GROWTH OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN India (number of confirmed cases as per government data, to be precise) is yet to “fall off” the exponential growth phase. This can be seen graphically if the timeline of number of cases is plotted with the number of cases on a logarithmic scale graph (where, unlike on a linear scale graph, unit intervals typically differ by a factor of 10). The graph (Figure 1) will be a straight line if the infection spread is continuing to increase exponentially. While the curve may seem to depart from the straight line, recent data suggest that its trend is closer to a straight line than curving downwards. A proper statistical regression analysis to the data will show that the best curve that fits the data in this graph is a straight line.
Another way of looking at this trend, as discussed in an earlier article (“Lockdown and after”, Frontline, May 8), is the “growth factor”, the ratio of the changes in the number of confirmed cases between two consecutive days. If one looks at the data for the past one week (Figure 2) from May 1, this growth factor, though close to 1, has been mostly above 1. This implies that although the growth rate is close to dropping below the exponential phase, it is still very much in that phase even as the country is into its third consecutive lockdown.
Esta historia es de la edición May 22, 2020 de FRONTLINE.
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How Not To Handle An Epidemic
The lockdowns were meant to buy time to put in place appropriate health measures and contain the coronavirus’ spread, but they have failed to achieve the objective and heaped immense misery on the marginalised sections of society. India is still in the exponential phase of the COVID-19 infection and community transmission is a reality that the government refuses to accept.
Tragedy on foot
As the COVID-19-induced lockdown cuts the ground beneath their feet in Tamil Nadu, thousands of migrant workers are trudging along the highway to the relative safety of their upcountry homes.
Sarpanchs as game changers
Odisha manages to keep COVID-19 well under control because of the strong participation of panchayati raj institutions and the community at the grass-roots level under the leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
Scapegoating China
As the COVID-19 death rate spikes and the economy tanks in the United States, Donald Trump and his advisers target China and the World Health Organisation with an eye to winning the forthcoming presidential election.
New worries
Kerala’s measured approach to the pandemic and lockdown has yielded results. But it still has to grapple with their huge economic impact on its economy, which it feels the Centre’s special financial relief package does little to alleviate.
No love lost for labour
Taking advantage of the lockdown and the inability of workers to organise protests, many State governments introduce sweeping changes to labour laws to the detriment of workers on the pretext of reviving production and boosting the economy.
Capital's Malthusian moment
In a world that needs substantial reorienting of production and distribution, Indian capital is resorting to a militant form of moribund neoliberalism to overcome its current crisis. In this pursuit of profit, it is ready and willing to throw into mortal peril millions whom it adjudicates as not worth their means—an admixture of social Darwinism born of capital’s avarice and brutalism spawned by Hindutva. .
Understanding migration
When governments and their plans are found to be blatantly wanting in addressing reverse migration, exercises such as the Ekta Parishad’s survey of migrant workers throughout India can be useful to work out creative long-lasting solutions.
Waiting for Jabalpur moment
The Supreme Court’s role in ensuring executive accountability during the ongoing lockdown leaves much to be desired. Standing in shining contrast is the record of some High Courts.
An empty package
The Modi regime, which has been unable to control the COVID-19 infection, restore economic activity and provide relief to millions exposed to starvation, trains its sights on Indian democracy, making use of the panic generated by fear and a lockdown that forecloses paths of resistance.
