Since then, the swing in the context, backdrop and expectation from the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting has been dramatic. At present, a status quo on the policy rates in June seems to be a foregone conclusion.
As someone who was clearly in favour of a pause in April, I do not see any reason to change my view in June. The pause by the RBI in April was the most appropriate and commendable decision, demonstrating a more "Fed-independent" monetary policy stance, partly bolstered by the cushion of a material narrowing of trade and current account gaps and a rangebound INR. While it is important for an emerging economy central bank to stay broadly in sync with the global interest rate cycle, one needs to recognize that, at present, the deviation in case of inflation and GDP growth from their respective trend-lines for Western economies is much more pronounced than in India.
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