Covid Impact Relatively Muted In India

Compared to Italy and the US, India’s rate of infection spread has been slow. This can be attributed to the strict measures in place

- Amitabh Kant, Venugopal Mothkoor & Siddharth Sinha

As Covid-19 cases surpass 2.6 million globally, with over 1,84,000 fatalities, the unpredictable virus continues to wreak havoc in 200 countries, taking a toll on lives as well as livelihoods. Countries must unite and pool resources and knowledge to jointly combat this pandemic. However, it is important to understand the progression and behaviour of the virus in different countries to combat it effectively.

The NITI Aayog undertook an extensive and rigorous analysis of data from India and the world to understand the differential impact of the virus, and found that its effect in India has been relatively muted thus far.

Global comparison

In terms of chronology, while the coronavirus originated and spread from China, countries such as India, the US, the UK, France, Italy, and Germany reported their first cases within a 10-day timeframe. And yet the trajectory has differed for India. As of April 22, fatalities in India were 640 compared to 45,063 in the US and 24,648 in Italy. Of over 1,84,000 deaths reported globally, India’s share is just 0.4 per cent.

Interestingly, Italy reported its first case a day after India, but in its fourth week since, Italy recorded 216 per cent growth, while it was still almost zero in India. Italy peaked on Day 22 while India started experiencing slow growth only from Day 46; to date, the daily growth rate in cases of Italy was 1,300 times that of India. Even today, when Italy has peaked and flattened out, its virus fatalities remain nine times higher.