GREEN SHOOTS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH

Global growth surges on US strength, upgrades, and India's rise, but China's shadow looms

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In recent months, sentiment regarding global growth has notably shifted. Fund managers and analysts are now less apprehensive about the trajectory of global GDP growth. Instead, there’s a prevailing optimism, particularly evident in the resilience of US markets.

While the Chinese economy faces internal challenges, experts are finding solace and hope in the growth of Indian markets, which they believe can contribute to global GDP expansion. This school of thought needs a fair bit of exploration.

THE GLOBAL PICTURE

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its projections for global inflation, foreseeing it to reach 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The IMF also predicts global economic growth to be 3.1% in 2024, up by 20 basis points from its previous estimate of 2.9% in October ’23, and 3.2% in 2025. This optimism stems from the resilience of the global economy, declining inflation, and sustained economic growth.

After the IMF, S&P Global Market Intelligence has revised its global growth forecast upwards for 2024. Initially projected at 2.3%, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) now estimated at 2.6% as of March.

The website said, “The upward revision reflects higher forecast for growth in several countries, including the US, the UK, and India. Our global forecast remains above the market consensus expectation (2.4%) as it has been since the beginning of 2023.” It added, “Our annual global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 2.6%. Global real GDP growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis likely reached a trough of 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, with a pick-up to 0.8% forecast by the second half of 2024.”