Cause and Effect

India needs to show atmanirbharta as the era of New Cold War’ is rampaging across South Asia

WHILE global geopolitics is in an era of uncertainty, the situation in South Asia is disconcerting for India. The instability, beginning with Afghanistan in 2021, has spread, like a domino effect, to most South Asian countries.

The latest domino is Bangladesh where public protests led to the ouster of an elected regime and saw its Parliament dissolved.

These trends of change in South Asia through elections, as in Maldives; through violence, as in Afghanistan; and through protesters pushing out elected leaders, as in Sri Lanka and now in Bangladesh, are all disconcerting.

Every South Asian country, barring India, is showing tumult. India is in a stable position after the June elections and its steady economic progress is the glue that often makes problems in South Asian countries seem surmountable.

What are the trends that are operating? In Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban, after the undignified exit of the US, left India in the lurch. An unfriendly regime now operates in Kabul. India realised the limitations of its strategic congruence with the US in South Asia. The US ignored India's concerns while exiting Afghanistan.

The Taliban has diminished the popular gains of the people of Afghanistan.

In 2022, the elected Sri Lankan government, run by the Rajapaksa brothers, faced spontaneous public protests against economic mismanagement, which left the country in dire straits. Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned from the prime ministership and was replaced by the lone United National Party (UNP) MP Ranil Wickremesinghe. The protests were not quelled, and the political class came under violent attack. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and resigned.

However, Sri Lanka did not hand over the reins of power to the army, which played its constitutional role. Parliament succeeded in electing Wickremesinghe as president. He has fulfilled the remainder of Gotabaya's term.