Rising fuel & fertiliser bill, El Niño risk could drag FY27 growth to 6.5%

India’s economic growth is expected to slow to 6.5 per cent in FY27 from the 7.7 per cent estimated by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for FY26, according to a poll of 10 economists, as the fallout from the West Asia conflict and the prospect of a below-normal monsoon weigh on economic activity.

- HIMANSHI BHARDWAJ

QuantEco Research is the most bearish among the agencies surveyed, projecting growth at 6.2 per cent, while IDFC First Bank expects the economy to expand by 6.8 per cent.

The West Asia conflict, which broke out in late February, had only a limited impact on fourth-quarter FY26 output, with growth coming in at a better-than-expected 7.8 per cent. Economists, however, caution that the full force of the disruption has yet to be felt.