India's cooling consumer electronics market has put a question mark on its lofty aim to achieve annual revenue of $500 billion from electronics manufacturing. While policy and financial measures on way can help, the country is likely to miss the target by a mile, experts said.
India's domestic electronics industry may clock a total revenue of just $145 billion this year, the consensus estimate of three market researchers showed. This includes the consumer electronics industry of smartphones ($42 billion); laptops, desktops and tablets ($11 billion); and televisions, cameras, audio and accessories ($12 billion). Home appliances are expected to add $80 billion.
In September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for achieving a $500 billion electronics economy by 2030; however, this requires an annual revenue growth of 23%, against the 5% or lower growth in every electronics category since the pandemic outbreak.
"The current consumer markets show no signs of a turnaround, and enterprises are cautious due to macroeconomic concerns," said an industry executive who works with the Centre on various technology policy affairs.
"Overall, India's growth pace in the electronics economy has largely remained in the low single digit. To reach the promised land of a $500-billion domestic electronics economy, India will need strong double-digit growth—which is currently entirely lacking in the market," the executive said on the condition of anonymity.
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