Self-fulfilling prophecy? Political violence could benefit far-right parties in EU polls-if we let it

The shooting of the Slovakian prime minister, Robert Fico, has dramatised the increasingly angry and polarised landscape of European politics.

- Paul Taylor

With just weeks to go before the European parliament elections, it is time to step back from the brink.

Little is known about the 71-yearold alleged gunman or his motives so far. But social media conspiracy theorists were quick to blame Europe's liberal elites for creating an environment of hate against Fico. It comes against a backdrop of growing political violence and threats against candidates, mayors and officials that have led some to abandon politics. Suspected far-right thugs beat up a Social Democratic MEP candidate in eastern Germany last month, putting him in hospital, and several Greens have also been attacked. French mayors quit last year after attacks on their homes by anti-immigration militants or urban rioters.

How the assassination attempt on a leader who opposed military aid to Ukraine and was sympathetic to Russia's war of aggression will affect the EU election remains to be seen. But populist and far-right parties promising to restore law and order may be the electoral beneficiaries of the anxiety generated by political violence. By hyping up the threat from anti-immigration nationalists, Europe's centre-left parties risk amplifying the very phenomenon they strive to prevent.

Yet a cool-headed analysis of recent opinion polls suggests that the far right remains a long way from wielding any significant power in the EU's institutions.