Prisons could hit full capacity within weeks, despite new emergency measures announced by Labour to release some prisoners early.
An unprecedented move to cut the time served in custody for most sentences to 40% will not come into effect until September, and officials fear that capacity will be overwhelmed by the end of August. The justice secretary has described the situation as a "ticking timebomb".
A senior prisons source said they were "very worried" about an expected increase in inmates after the late August bank holiday, warning that, with just 700 adult male prison places left in England and Wales, the estate was "very vulnerable to shocks".
The official added: "That can be big, high-profile shocks, like the 2011 civil disorder or a prison riot, or it could actually be much more mundane things like an outbreak of bedbugs that would require us to close a wing." An early release scheme started by the Conservative government is still running, while up to 200 police cells have been made available under Operation Safeguard to hold inmates temporarily. Two further contingencies are on standby if the crisis worsens.
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