Things will only get better - It suits Labour to paint the bleakest economic picture

Labour will win by a mile but is coming to power at the worst possible moment.

- Larry Elliott

The economy has been laid waste by the Conservatives, who have deployed a scorched earth policy that will ensure the incoming government has the inheritance from hell.

That, at least, is the conventional wisdom, a view that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have done nothing to counter.

There is a reason for that. It suits Labour's campaign message to paint the blackest possible picture so that it can blame the Tories for any tough decisions it has to make. Even so, the conventional wisdom is wrong. Without in any way minimising the challenges Starmer and Reeves face, this is actually not a bad time to be arriving in office.

Sure, excessively high interest rates threaten to derail the UK's fledgling recovery. No question that years of weak productivity growth coupled with the pandemic and a cost of living crisis have left the public finances in a mess. Nobody would dispute that the economy is in a worse state than it was the last time Labour emerged from opposition in 1997. Covid has left deep and permanent scars.

That said, the next government will have a number of things going for it. For a start, expectations are at such a rock bottom level that it won't take much to exceed them. The desire of voters to get rid of the Tories does not appear to be matched by a similar enthusiasm for what Labour is offering.

Faith in politicians of all stripes is at a low ebb, so nobody is anticipating much.