A Guide to the World In 2050

As the balance of power shifts from West to East, market to state, democracy to authoritarianism and populism—history isn’t over. It’s just getting started

- By Tom Orlik and Bjorn van Roye

Who really won the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union? Maybe China.

In 1972, Cold War logic pushed President Richard Nixon into an unlikely alliance with Mao Zedong—paving the way for China to reenter the global community. In 1991 the collapse of the Soviet Union amplified the West’s “end of history” hubris, blinding Washington, London, and Paris to the significance of China’s rise.

Fast-forward to 2020, and China has emerged as a major global power, its single-party state and state-dominated economy the subject of consternation in foreign capitals and pride in Beijing. By 2035, based on Bloomberg Economics’ forecasts, China will have overtaken the U.S., emerging as the world’s biggest economy and most potent geopolitical force.

China’s rise is emblematic of a larger shift that will accelerate in the decades ahead. Using a growth accounting framework— adding up contributions of labor, capital, and technology—Bloomberg Economics has forecast gross domestic product out to 2050 for 39 economies, from the advanced U.S. to frontier Ghana. Using that data, we’ve charted the future path of global GDP based on geographic, political, and economic configurations.