The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought enormous personal, economic, and social damage. It has upended countless lives, and exacerbated the many disruptions afoot, laying bare the unviability of many business models. Beyond that, it has provided a new set of acute shocks to seemingly sturdy businesses and principles that have guided our thinking for decades. Wrapping our minds around what is happening is enormously difficult. Having resulted in 14.6 million known infections and 608,000 known deaths as of July 20, the new coronavirus is unpredictable and lethal, and its like hasn’t been seen in more than a century. Its effects are paradoxical. It has caused a supply shock and a demand shock.
It is causing a recession of indeterminate length and severity — even as some countries are crawling their way back to recovery. It is inspiring heroic feats of public-spiritedness and charity among millions, while also providing an opportunity for fraudsters to peddle false cures and prey on the vulnerable. It is stoking competition among countries, and between regions within countries, to secure supplies, while also serving as an occasion for greater national solidarity and regional cooperation. The pandemic is primarily a public health problem, but one with immense immediate implications for business, and for economic, fiscal, and monetary policy. The health threats could disappear within a matter of months — or they could persist for years. This virus is both accelerating powerful existing trends (such as automation and inequality) and slamming the brakes on trends that had, until very recently, possessed tremendous momentum (such as globalization).
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