Selection of gold bullion. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
A couple of years ago, a commodity and currency analyst bet my friend Gary Alexander that gold would fall below $1,000 per ounce, and Gary won that bet – two years in a row. Now, in the face of a global pandemic, that analyst has turned bullish and is predicting gold will double from here – to $3,300 per ounce by 2022 (“The Economic and Monetary Conditions are Perfect for Gold,” by Ivan Martchev, MarketWatch, March 30, 2020). Martchev shows a dramatic chart of gold bullion rising to an all-time high relative to the CRB Commodity Index. The chart shows gold rising from 1.15 (to the CRB Index) in 2001 to a record high 13.07 recently – a gain of over 1,000% in 19 years.
He compares the current coronavirus emergency to the 2008-09 financial crisis, which propelled gold to an all-time high in 2011, saying, “We have a similar environment at the moment. Interest rates have been dropped to zero at the fed funds rate level, and the federal deficit will be larger than 10% of GDP (larger than after the 2008 crisis) due to the $2 trillion bailout. Record deficit spending and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) with no preset limits is the perfect environment for gold bullion.
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