Well, here we are again. Of course, this is different from the other major downturns in my lifetime, but major downturns have happened throughout history and they always will. Sadly, the truth is we only get clarity with hindsight. As usual, this one blindsided pretty much all of us.
We all started hearing about the virus in China as early as January. Obviously we were all concerned, but would it be like swine flu, Ebola, SARS or MERS? The lives of most people and markets were not greatly impacted by these, though 200,000 died of swine flu.
HIV has killed 25 million to 35 million people – just terrible, but it did not bring the world to a halt.
So Covid-19 is no surprise to anyone. But its economic impact, as the world seeks to save lives, is.
The lessons we have learnt by researching the great tragedies of world wars, pandemics like the bubonic plague and many huge depressions are our guide now and into the future.
The world will recover
First, while far too many will get ill and die, the world will recover. The global population of 7.7 billion grows by around 93 million people a year. Global deaths are not predicted at anywhere near that level.
As we recover we will have a huge population of people who will want to rebuild and move ahead.
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