Heatwaves, Fires And Floods Will Be Britain's New Normal

Europe is sweltering in a heatwave, just as the UK did last year. As record temperatures keep rising, Nick Ferris looks at what that means for the future of the planet - and for us

- Nick Ferris

Europe braces for temperatures touching 49C. Fires rage in the forests of Spain. More than a dozen cities across Italy are put on red heat alert. The Acropolis is closed to tourists as holidaymakers buckle in the midday sun.

The current Cerberus heatwave in Southern Europe, we have been told, could well lead to "potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe", while we have also been told that the first week of July was the hottest week ever recorded worldwide.

This year has also seen the hottest June on record in the UK, with an average temperature of 15.8C during the month. And, just last year, the temperature in the UK crossed 40C for the first time ever.

But this is not an anomaly; it is becoming routine. Every year, summer comes around, and meteorologists tell us that we have just experienced the hottest day, week or month on record.

We now know that the hottest 10 years in human history have all taken place since 2010, and that the last decade has seen extreme weather events like floods and wildfires become a regular fixture in the news. But just how bad can we expect things to get over the next 10 years?

Tim Benton, director of the environment programme at the think tank Chatham House, tells The Independent: "The trend we have seen over the last decade is only going to continue, and the likelihood of seeing a terrible weather event or other climate impact is going to be much higher than it has previously been."

The latest scientific literature gives us a sense of what these "climate impacts" might be.

Firstly there is temperature. It will come as little surprise that temperatures are expected to keep trending upwards. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is currently a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.