Described in Jawaharlal Nehru's Discovery of India as the heart of Hindustan, Uttar Pradesh continues to remain politically the most crucial part of the Hindi heartland. The BJP swept the state with 71 of 80 seats in 2014 (73 for its National Democratic Alliance) and 62 (64 for the NDA) in 2019. Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the alliance would win all 80 seats this time.
Except in Uttar Pradesh, the NDA has hit the saturation point in the heartland. It has all 25 seats in Rajasthan, 28 of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, all five seats in Uttarakhand, 39 of 40 seats in Bihar, all 10 seats in Haryana, 12 of 14 seats in Jharkhand and nine of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. No wonder, the BJP eyes Uttar Pradesh to improve its tally in the region.
More than anything else, the saffron brigade's advantage is the inherent weakness of the opposition. With the Bahujan Samaj Party widely seen as "surrendered" before threats from the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI, the Samajwadi Party remains the key opposition in Uttar Pradesh. The increasingly weakened position of the Congress is clear from the fact that the party is contesting from just 17 seats.
As the BJP plays up the Ram Temple card, the communal divide is quite evident in large parts of the state. But there is as much of a caste divide, which could upset the BJP applecart. "What has the government done for my community, except for giving free rations, to which everyone is entitled?" asked Radhey Lal, a dalit who had served as the village head in Dawoodnagar in Lucknow. Another dalit villager, Raja Ram, from Karora village a few kilometres away, said, "Whoever wins power will ensure the disbursement of free rations to us." Prime Minister Narendra Modi often reminds his audience about the welfare measures introduced by him, such as the annual grant of ₹2,000 to every farmer, electricity connection to every home and gas cylinder under the Ujjwala scheme. But not everyone is impressed.
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