Researchers looked at how suitable European countries were for the yellow-legged or Asian hornet to become established and how they might have spread without action.
The hornet, which reached France in pottery from China 20 years ago and spread rapidly, can kill 50 bees a day and has devastated colonies on the Continent.
Destroy
It was first seen in the UK in 2016 and regular sightings since include 44 this year, largely in Kent and East Sussex, as well as a 15in nest in St Brelade on Jersey.
The National Bee Unit responds rapidly to reports of the species which also preys on other pollinating insects.
Unit staff destroy the invasive hornets and nests they find.
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