The conference faces multiple headwinds: Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and deepening disagreements over climate finance between developed and developing nations.
The stakes are particularly high as 2024 is set to become the first year when annual average temperatures breach the critical 1.5 degree Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels. For India, recent estimates illustrate the growing cost of the climate crisis, with the country having faced one of its most severe years of climate impacts with extreme weather events affecting 93% of days in the first nine months of 2024, resulting in over 3,200 deaths and widespread economic damage.
Among the challenges are recent trade tensions. On November 5, the BASIC group (Brazil, China, India, and South Africa) requested a separate agenda item to discuss unilateral trade restrictions. The move reflects growing concerns about measures like the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulations, set to take effect in 2026.
"BASIC is of the view that UNFCCC Parties are obligated to send a clear and strong signal of commitment to multilateralism and global cooperation as the most effective and just manner to respond to climate change," the group stated, calling for cooperative solutions rather than unilateral trade restrictions.
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