Weakened job market is a grim sign of things to come

Recruiter Reed threw the cat among the pigeons when it warned of a sharp fall in the number of jobs being advertised – and suggested that a recession may be just around the corner.

- JAMES MOORE

Unfortunately, the official figures seem to back its predictions.

Between September and November 2024, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) recorded 818,000 job vacancies – a fall of 31,000 on the previous three months. This is the 29th consecutive fall.

Each time these figures are published, the ONS tells us that the number of openings is still above pre-Covid levels. This remains the case, but when the difference between today’s figures and the pre-pandemic ones is 22,000, it’s hardly a huge increase. It is also highly unlikely it will be able to roll out the same line next year, judging by how things are going.

The ONS uses a rolling three-month period for its labour force data, and Rachel Reeves’s controversial Budget occurred towards the end of the latest one on 30 October. So the impact of her decision to tax jobs by increasing employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) hasn’t really filtered through.

What we do know, however, is that the list of employers warning of job cuts grows by the day. Small wonder that people are starting to get (very) twitchy about the economy...