India's Russia Problem Will Grow

Locked out of semiconductor supply, Moscow will be hard-pressed to fulfil New Delhi's military needs

- Abhiram Manchi and Pranay Kotasthane

Russia has just ordered its first mobilisation since World War II to bolster its invasion of Ukraine. This clearly shows that the war is not going according to plan for Moscow. But Russia is still considered a dependable defence partner to India. An underlying assumption is that Russia will continue to be a reliable supplier even in the future. But this assumption fails to consider that Russia's defence production capabilities will continue to decline well after the ongoing war in Ukraine ends. Here's why.

Delivery delays amid chip shortage

Consider these tell-tale signs.

Russia has delayed the delivery of two Talwar-class stealth frigates for up to six months.

There are also short-term delays in the supply of S-400 Triumf missile systems and spares for Kilo-class submarines, MiG-29 fighters and Kamov Mi-17 military transport helicopters.

These setbacks shouldn't be dismissed as routine.

They indicate a deeper problem: Russia's inability to access semiconductor chips for defence platforms going ahead.

Ukraine put out an alleged shopping list of semiconductors, connectors, transformers, etc that Russia is desperate to purchase. Politico, a US-based media company, divided this list into three parts: Critical, Important, and Not-so-important.