Bye Bye Birdie #9: Stormy Skies

Up until now in this column we have only considered the potential loss of GPS satellites during a voyage.

- Roberet Reeder

However, our GPS satellites are in no way uniquely vulnerable, nor are we uniquely dependent on them for navigation. We also use satellites for communications and weather prediction; hence, we need to be self-sufficient and able to carry on without these capabilties as well. So far we have discussed the largescale loss of satellites in fairly abstract terms, but for this article we are going to create a very specific hypothetical scenario.

PRELUDE 

The following scenario is based as closely as possible on the 1859 Carrington Event, a powerful solar storm. We will focus only on the immediate effects such an event would have on a small cruising boat at sea, including how it would affect the satellite and radio resources commonly used by cruisers. For those unfamiliar with the history of this event, here is a summary: In early September 1859, a solar coronal mass ejection hit the earth, causing spectacular auroras worldwide and also causing telegraph systems (the only large electrical systems that existed at the time) to fail catastrophically. The Carrington Event remains the largest solar storm to affect the earth since humans have used electricity in a widespread fashion. A storm of similar magnitude also occurred in 2012, but it narrowly missed Earth. NASA predicts that the probability of Earth being hit square on by a coronal mass ejection of this size over the next decade is about 12%.

For our scenario, we’re going to suppose we are a cruising trawler making a rhumb-line passage of 240° True from San Francisco to Kahului Harbor on Maui, a trip of more than 2,000 miles. For argument’s sake we’ll assume that the main engine is a simple diesel that operates in the absence of electricity; otherwise we’d be without propulsion and adrift.