Industry experts say...

Representatives from a selection of Approved Training Organisations look forward to the future of Commercial Air Travel and prospects for professional pilots after the pandemic

- Eugenio Facci

This edition of our ‘Go Commercial’ feature is published at a time of unusual uncertainty for the aviation industry and, indeed, for the global economy. The pandemic caused by Covid-19, and the related containment measures, have caused large economic contractions in most of the world (the UK for instance seeing its worst economic figures in many decades) and a severe decline in passenger numbers. The long-term consequences of this are very difficult to predict. What is certain, however, is that this is a very appropriate time for all aspiring commercial pilots to make their career path ‘Covidproof’, and to plan for the most likely future scenarios.

Covid impact

The future that will emerge at the end of the pandemic will, most likely, be somewhere between two extreme scenarios. In the best-case scenario, the aviation industry will go back to the long-term trend of strong growth that preceded Covid-19 within roughly three years. Although not extremely likely, this is a possibility not to be discounted, as the industry has shown a surprising degree of resilience during past crises. Between 1970 and 2018, passenger numbers doubled roughly every ten years, and the rate of growth of the aviation industry has been remarkably stable, with only brief and occasional pauses. Indeed, while the aviation industry seems to face serious downturns every number of years, a less appreciated fact is that the strong growth rate of the sector has been one of the most stable features of the global economy since WWII.