They were supposed to be further proof that India is inching closer towards herd immunity against COVID-19, but the results of India’s latest serosurveys have turned out to be anything but.
Serosurveillance considered the gold standard for measuring population immunity arising out of past infection or vaccination, can provide crucial insights into progression of a pandemic, its current prevalence level and its likely trajectory for the future.
Many were, therefore, hoping that the large number of serosurveys conducted in various parts of India in the August-September period would reveal how close the country is towards achieving herd immunity.
A distant dream?
Data from the most recent nationwide survey carried out by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) show that only a fraction of the general population is seropositive for the SARS-CoV-2 infection. At 7%, the figure fell way below the threshold needed for reaching herd immunity. According to most experts, viral transmission does not slow down until at least 60 percent of the population is infected.
The “revelation” that the great majority of the 1.3 billion-strong Indian population is still susceptible to the infection came as nothing less than a shock to those waiting for redemption from the pandemic by way of ‘herd immunity’.
They found the data at odds with the steady surge of daily case counts seen through early October which saw the country emerge as the world hotspot for COVID-19.
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