How Not To Handle An Epidemic

The lockdowns were meant to buy time to put in place appropriate health measures and contain the coronavirus’ spread, but they have failed to achieve the objective and heaped immense misery on the marginalised sections of society. India is still in the exponential phase of the COVID-19 infection and community transmission is a reality that the government refuses to accept.

- R. Ramachandran

As the country enters the fourth phase of lockdown, albeit with the easing of many restrictions and opening up of some essential economic activities, it is still not out of the COVID-19 woods. With the total number of confirmed cases (as against the true number of infections) standing at 1,12,359 as of May 21, the caseload is still increasing at the rate of over 5,000 cases a day. Although the graph may appear to be showing some signs of levelling off, given the past trend, it is not certain that it may begin to decline soon.

The growth factor—the ratio of increases in caseloads on two consecutive days—has continued to remain mostly a little over 1, which means we are still in the exponential phase (Fig. 1). Of course, the national picture reflects the situation in some problem States. Barring Punjab, the other States that were discussed in the Frontline issue dated May 22 continue to be problematic. Moreover, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, whose trajectories had seemed to bend down from the exponential phase are now showing signs of trend reversal. Of serious concern will be the case of West Bengal, which will be subjected to the double whammy of COVID-19 and the supercyclone “Amphan”. The cyclone’s landfall and its continuing north-north-eastward trajectory over land, which has just passed 270 kilometres north-north-east of Kolkata into Bangladesh, with wind speeds touching 70-80 kmph, is likely to result in widespread devastation of life and property in and around that region.