In search of a road map

It is now increasingly clear that the government did not think through and provide for the consequences of the lockdown.

- T.K. RAJALAKSHMI

THE UNION GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN TAKING pride in its supposedly graded, pre-emptive and proactive approach in tackling the COVID-19 crisis. Yet a close look at the way the authorities have gone about the task gives the lie to these claims. India’s case fatality rate (CFR) has been very low and it has been possible to slow down the rate of “doubling” of new cases. Yet, this does not really show the real picture. The comparison with European countries such as Italy or Spain that have had an abnormally high spread of the infection and case fatalities owing to demographic factors makes little sense. Any comparison should ideally have been made with countries with similar populations and demographic indicators like age and stages of development. In fact, fatalities have been low in much of the developing world—in Africa, South and South East Asia, and also Eastern Europe.

Unlike in many other countries where the epidemic is ebbing, it is still on the rise in India and has, in fact, spread significantly in May. Testing capacities have been stepped up to around 95,000 a day. Yet, according to data available on the website of Worldometers, a global COVID-19 online tracker, India ranks 14th among countries with the highest number of cases but its testing per million population is much lower than that of countries with fewer confirmed cases such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand.

LOCKDOWN IMPACT

The government now belatedly realises the consequences of a blanket lockdown for people with non-COVID morbidities such as diabetes, haemophilia, cancer, and for patients requiring critical care such as dialysis and blood transfusion. The consequences of the suspension of immunisation services and hurdles created in the check-up of pregnant women requiring antenatal care are also sinking in.