‘Pandemics are inevitable and costly'

An interview with David Quammen, author of “Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic”.

- VIKHAR AHMED SAYEED

THE AMERICAN WRITER AND JOURNALIST David Quammen has published 17 books on varied subjects, including science and travel, and contributes regularly to National Geographic magazine. In his 2012 book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, he predicted that the next big pandemic would “almost certainly be a virus that spills over from wildlife to humans”. Spillover, which went on to win several international awards, is a mix of lively reportage and epidemiological sleuthing from zoonotic hotspots around the world. Quammen’s informed prediction has come true as investigations so far have identified the origins of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, to a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan city in Hubei province of China. While the animal host of the virus is still being traced, epidemiological detective work until date points to horseshoe bats and pangolins.

In a fascinating chapter in Spillover where Quammen reported about the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003, which is also caused by a virus in the family of coronaviruses (SARS-CoV), he wrote: “The much darker story remains to be told, probably not about this virus but about another. When the Next Big One comes, we can guess, it will likely conform to the same perverse pattern, high infectivity preceding notable symptoms. That will help it to move through cities and airports like an angel of death.” His statement was prescient. COVID-19 disease with asymptomatic or flu-like symptoms, is the “Next Big One”. The incubation period ranges from two to fourteen days, meaning that a person who has COVID-19 could continue to infect other people without displaying any acute symptoms of the virus itself.