Citing high interest rates and soaring inflationthe aftermath of the pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine-the International Monetary Fund forecasts that global growth in 2023 will slow to 2.7% from 3.2% in 2022 and 6.0% in 2021.
Emerging markets in Asia, however, are expected to fare better, with the IMF predicting growth to recover to 4.9% in 2023 from 4.4% in 2022. This brighter outlook, however, still contrasts with regional growth in Asia of 7.2% in 2021.
Armed with these statistics, I would like to explore how the opposing forces-the drag of the pandemic and the uptick in economic activity-are likely to play out at a practical level when it comes to logistics in Asia.
WHAT NEXT FOR EMERGING MARKETS LOGISTICS IN ASIA?
Let's start with a look on the bright side.
Five of the top eight ranking positions in the 2022 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index are occupied by Asian countries. They are: China (Rank: 1), India (Rank: 2), Malaysia (Rank: 4), Indonesia (Rank: 5) and Thailand (Rank: 8).
The region's positive showing is partly because supply chain snags caused by the pandemic are being ironed out and transport and digital infrastructure are rapidly improving.
Try as it might, however, the Asian region will not be able to escape the effects of predicted economic slowdowns in its main markets-the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States.
Put simply, with higher energy prices expected to push Europe into recession in 2023, imports the region from Asian manufacturers are expected to slump.
After all, when the choice is between heating one's home throughout an icy winter and ordering a new smartphone, what consumer would be mean enough to put a pricey new gadget before the warmth and wellbeing of the family?
この記事は Logistics Insider の February 2023 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
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この記事は Logistics Insider の February 2023 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です? サインイン
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