WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR COMMERCIAL AIRLINE AVIATION?

As the pandemic seemed to end, or at least the world found a way to live with the virus, it looked like the aviation industry had managed to reach the light at the end of the tunnel.

The temporary spike in passenger numbers recorded between 2020 and 2021 provided plenty of hope that the industry could ride the wave of recovery and even go beyond levels seen in 2019. However, fortunes changed and unprecedented events occurred, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, leading to a shift in global interests.

At the same time, some airlines were posting record revenues. American Airlines, the largest airline by fleet size in the world, finished Q3 2022 with 'revenues of $13.5 billion in the third quarter, a 13% increase versus 2019 and a record for any quarter in company history.' Delta Air Lines, another United States (US)-based carrier, ended the same quarter with 'adjusted revenue three percent higher and unit revenues up 23 percent compared to 2019, marking the highest revenue and unit revenue quarter in Delta's history,' according to the airline's President, Glen Hauenstein. Other regions experienced their share of record-breaking results, such as Ryanair's recovery from 39.1 million passengers in H1 FY2022 to 95.1 million in H1 FY2023, or a strong showing by Japan-based All Nippon Airways (ANA), as the airline reversed a six-month loss in 2021 to a six-month profit by the end of September 2022, from ¥115.5 billion ($823.9 million) to ¥30.2 billion ($214.4 million).

While reviewing the airline sector for Seeking Alpha in the United States, Daniel Martins, one of the founders of a California-based hedge fund firm, noted that it remains tricky to invest in the aviation industry. “At a high level, betting on such a procyclical sector is most appropriate during the early stage of recovery in economic activity. Instead, what I see happening today is a long overdue rebound in travel demand that could still be severely dented, should inflation and rapidly rising interest rates lead to something that resembles a recession next year," Martins concluded his analysis.

Mixed fortunes and signals