It feels like an eternity since the elections to the 18th Lok Sabha began on April 19. But the anticipation and anxiety over what lies ahead on June 4—the day of the results—is still palpable in West Bengal.
This sentiment is particularly pronounced in the nine constituencies in southern Bengal that will go to polls on June 1. These are the urban constituencies of Dum Dum, Kolkata Uttar, Kolkata Dakshin and Jadavpur, rural seats of Mathurapur and Joynagar and those that have a mix of both—Diamond Harbour, Barasat and Basirhat.
While the BJP started out as the favourite initially, the Trinamool Congress has an edge in the last phase of the polls. Trinamool had won all the seats in 2019 and almost all assembly segments within them in 2021. Three of the Lok Sabha seats fall in South 24 Parganas district—Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour and Joynagar.
Mathurapur—reserved for the scheduled castes and with 35.57 per cent of Muslims—has become a Trinamool stronghold in the last decade. The Mamata Banerjee-led party has been increasing its winning margin ever since it first won the seat from the CPI(M) in 2009. However, its three-time MP Choudhury Mohan Jatua will be sitting it out this time because of poor health. In his place, the Trinamool has fielded Bapi Haldar against the BJP’s Ashok Purkait.
Neighbouring Diamond Harbour is a prestige seat for Trinamool, as Mamata’s nephew Abhishek is seeking a third term. There was a rumour that the Indian Secular Front MLA Nawsad Siddiqui could contest against him, which could have split the 39 per cent Muslim vote. But with Siddiqui stepping back and the CPI(M) and BJP fielding weak candidates, the Trinamool has an edge.
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