THE ART OF ARITHMETIC

The target of 400-plus seats for the National Democratic Alliance has the BJP on an alliance-making spree  

- PRATUL SHARMA

The BJP is on the verge of scoring a unique electoral hat-trick—securing a majority on its own three times in a row in the Lok Sabha polls. The party could well replicate its 2014 and 2019 successes, but as the political landscape evolves and the electoral battle intensifies in the run-up to the 2024 polls, it is welcoming new and former allies to bolster its position in key states. Ahead of the poll announcement, what is driving the BJP—pre-contest anxiety or a cogent strategy?

The BJP’s national leadership, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief J.P. Nadda, has set an ambitious target: securing more than 50 per cent of votes. No party in India has been able to achieve that; even the Congress’s remarkable 404-seat victory in 1984 came with a vote share of less than 47 per cent.

In 2014, the BJP captured 31 per cent of votes; in 2019, it surged to 37 per cent. Notably, in 2019, as many as 224 of 303 victorious BJP candidates had vote shares of more than 50 per cent, highlighting the party’s growing popularity and poll management expertise.

The new target, though, is monumental. The BJP must significantly surpass its previous achievements, and expand its existing support base significantly, to reach the target.

That is why the political activity following the assembly polls victory in three Hindi heartland states has been so intense. Sample this: Modi and his cabinet colleagues are crisscrossing the country at breakneck pace to inaugurate new projects before the model code of conduct kicks in. Building the Ram Temple and the notification of the contentious rules under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act are aimed at the party’s core constituency.