So That Happened

Fractures between nations leave a vacuum of leadership to deal with the virus’s aftershocks

- Amanda Kolson Hurley

While the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc around much of the globe, political and business leaders are already starting to think about what the world might look like once the worst of the outbreak passes.

The forecasts aren’t good.

Collapsing governments, famine, crushed economies, and emboldened extremists are all among the darkest post-pandemic scenarios. Yet even less dramatic outlooks have a gloomy tinge, with political alliances crumbling and economies unlikely to rebound fast enough to blunt the impact of hundreds of millions of lost jobs.

Seams that were opening before the virus emerged are tearing apart faster. Bickering between the U.S. and China about the origins of and response to Covid-19 now threaten a trade deal that could help the world recover. A fight over distribution of an eventual vaccine is dividing allies. And the United Nations has been sidelined while autocratic governments have stepped up attacks on civil liberties.

Hopes that nations might momentarily set aside their differences to combat the coronavirus have largely evaporated. “This pandemic is about as close to an asteroid hitting the Earth as you can imagine in terms of a common threat,” says Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “But not only has there been no meaningful cooperation, it’s become just another vector for competition.”