UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

As Europe launches a fierce fightback against Putin, Germany takes the lead with an extraordinary geostrategic U-turn

- AJISH P. JOY

Just over a month before Vladimir Putin’s troops invaded Ukraine, the German navy chief, vice-admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, was in India for a brief visit. Delivering a lecture at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in Delhi on January 21, Schönbach said Putin would never invade Ukraine. What Putin really wanted, he argued, was respect. “It is easy to give him the respect he demands, and probably deserves,” said Schönbach. The lecture caused a major furore in Berlin, not on account of its contents, but because the admiral allowed it to be placed on record. Two days later, he was forced to resign.

While Schönbach lost his job for airing his views, it offered a rare glimpse into the minds of the normally taciturn Germans. To be fair to the admiral, till the moment Russian troops moved into Ukraine, the entire German leadership, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz, probably shared his assessment.

In fact, Scholz, who belongs to the traditionally pro-Russian wing of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), was in Moscow on February 15, hoping to find a solution to the crisis. After the formal discussions, Putin, who speaks fluent German, invited Scholz for a drink, and a word in private. Scholz later told his aides that he was sure that Putin was not going to war. Less than a week later, however, Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. For Scholz, and for the entire German establishment, it came as a personal as well as political blow.