Three Reasons The PM Is Now In A Stronger Position

Back on top: the moment to depose Boris Johnson has passed

- John Rentoul

The Metropolitan Police inquiry is complete and Boris Johnson has received no more penalty notices. His total, from a four-month investigation that at one point threatened to bring him down, is just one fine, for what appears to be the least serious illegal gathering, when he was ambushed with a birthday cake in between meetings two years ago.

His political future was already no longer at immediate risk, but there was a widespread assumption that he would receive more penalty notices, which would have kept the "prime minister, law-breaker" story going at a low level. Now it is stuttering to its conclusion.

We still have the Sue Gray report to look forward to, probably next week. But that is now much less dangerous to Johnson than it was, despite the colourful anonymous briefings about how it will be "very bad" for him. I cannot be sure, but it may be that those briefings were designed to manage expectations on behalf of the prime minister. When Gray's report is published and repeats many of the criticisms of her interim, filleted report, the effect is likely to be anti-climactic.

The interim report published in January after the police began their investigation had some harsh things to say about a "serious failure to observe ... the standards expected of the entire British population at the time", which represented "failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office", for which the prime minister must ultimately take responsibility.