As we enter the new year, India and China are poised at an ambiguous juncture in their relations. There has been a thaw after an extended period of turbulence since the summer of 2020, but its structural impediments persist. Disengagement of Indian and Chinese troops in eastern Ladakh has been achieved, but military deployment in abnormally high numbers continues for the fifth successive winter; the process of de-escalation has not commenced yet. The paradigm governing the relationship for over three decades, already enfeebled, broke down in 2020, and the quest for a new equilibrium has an uncertain prognosis, with no agreed road map available.
There was a flurry of meaningful high-level meetings in the last quarter of 2024, including between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at Kazan on October 23, between the external affairs minister (EAM) S Jaishankar and foreign minister Wang Yi at Rio de Janeiro on November 18, and the resumption of the dialogue between the special representatives (SRs) after five years with national security advisor Ajit Doval meeting his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing on December 18. Relations have stabilized but are still not normal.
In his statement in Lok Sabha on December 3, the EAM was correct in not suggesting a major forward movement in India-China relations, indicating instead that recent developments have set bilateral ties in the direction of "some improvement" and adding that the conclusion of the disengagement phase "allows us to consider other aspects of our bilateral engagement in a calibrated manner, keeping our national security interests first and foremost." He was right in not encouraging the suggestion coming from certain quarters about a "reset" in India-China relations.
Where do we go from here?
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