Poll predicts Sunak will lose seat with Tories down to 53

New survey supports warnings of Labour 'supermajority'

- KATE DEVLIN

The Conservatives are facing a historic defeat at the election after a bombshell new poll suggested the party could be left with just 53 MPs and Rishi Sunak would not be among them. Adding further misery to a raft of dire poll results for Mr Sunak, it also shows him on course to become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat. And the Tories could be left battling the Lib Dems to avoid third place, with Sir Ed Davey’s party set to gain 50 MPs.

The Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis puts Labour on track to take 516 seats, with an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide – suggesting that recent Tory warnings of a Labour “supermajority” are correct.

While Nigel Farage’s party Reform UK was not predicted to win any seats, a separate megapoll by YouGov added to Mr Sunak’s mounting woes, suggesting that the successor to the Brexit Party would return five MPs to Westminster. They include Mr Farage, who would finally become an MP at his eighth attempt. His party would also beat Tory chair Richard Holden, who has faced accusations that his candidacy in the “safe” seat of Basildon and Billericay was a “stitch-up”.