During the election campaign, former and future US president Donald Trump said he would stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. While that seems highly unlikely, it is clear that the new administration is extremely skeptical of continuing significant US military aid to Kyiv. Trump and his vice-president, Mr J.D. Vance, have talked about pushing both sides to the negotiating table early in 2025.
This isn't hopeless: The chances of both sides being willing to negotiate in 2025 are increasing. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists he is willing to grind away indefinitely, but mounting personnel losses will make that difficult. Roughly 200,000 young Russian men have been killed in action, with probably double that number seriously wounded. And more than 500,000 people have departed from the country, many of them young men escaping the draft.
The arrival of up to 100,000 North Korean troops to help alleviate the problem is an admission of Russian weakness.
Ukraine also faces significant manpower problems but even more dire is the possibility of declining aid from the US and perhaps the European Union. President Volodymyr Zelensky's appeals have an increasing tone of desperation, and nothing in the national security appointments of Team Trump is likely to encourage Kyiv's sense of security. Even Mr Marco Rubio, Trump's choice for secretary of state, has abandoned his long-time support for Kyiv.
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