The Global Economy And COVID-19: The Great Lockdown

US will face the most severe recession since the Great Depression and India’s real GDP to grow by just 2.0% in 2020, says a report from Euromonitor International…

- Daniel Solomon

Despite lower mortality rates than other recent epidemics, the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and consumer markets has the potential to be significant for many reasons:

Geographic spread

Contagiousness

Weak global economy

The impact on China Known

Learnings from the Epidemic

Financial markets conditions worsened after COVID-19 entered Italy and as it entered USA, the situation grew worse.

Learning: Uncertainty about future recovery and financial shocks could exacerbate the crisis. The length of time it takes to recover has an impact on long term output, productivity, and consumer habits.

What is Different: A complete halt in many sectors across countries is unprecedented. The COVID-19 pandemic crisis is in the real economy and present globally.

Economic Outlook

Global GDP will contract sharply in 2020:

The COVID-19 pandemic has an enormous impact on the global economy.

COVID-19 will severely impact both the supply and demand sides of the economy.

Countries turn to substantial fiscal policies.

Our baseline forecast for global real economic growth in 2020 ranges from -1.5% to -4%, the lowest since the WWII

How is demand affected?

Stockpiling

Social distancing

Uncertainty about the future

Household and business financial constraints

How is supply affected?

Supply chain disruptions

Factory closures

Uncertainty over the length of the restrictions

Stockpiling by consumers