What Now? For Afghanistan, Pakistan And For India

Much rests on how Taliban treats Afghans & foreign jihadists, and the interplay of these factors

- Sushant Sareen

Taliban’s Emirate has been reestablished. What will happen going forward, not just for Afghanistan, but also the region and beyond?

The answer will depend largely on whether or not Taliban sticks to the promises it has made to the international community and assurances they are giving to Afghans.

There will be broadly two sets of metrics on which Taliban will be judged.

Taliban and Afghans: First, Taliban conduct internally. If there are atrocities, reprisal killings and massacres, if minorities are persecuted and women are considered chattel and/or are erased from public life, then it will be difficult, even impossible, for much of the world to engage with the Emirate. Diplomatic, economic, and political isolation will follow. There will be resistance to Taliban rule from within Afghanistan and without.

But if Taliban behaves no worse than an ultraconservative Islamist regime, then the world, and even most Afghans, might reconcile to the Emirate.

Taliban and Jihadists: Second, Taliban approach to jihadists. Will it sever links with the melange of nonAfghan jihadists – Arabs, Chechens, Iranians, Pakistanis, Tajiks, Turkmen, Uighurs, Uzbeks and others?