Multiple triggers for Vedanta stock

Vedanta’s stock is experiencing multiple positive triggers, primarily driven by favorable aluminium and zinc price trends. The company's demerger plans, while modified, are expected to unlock value and improve capital allocation. Key projects coming online in the next 12-18 months, including alumina refinery expansion and captive mines, are poised to significantly boost earnings.

- DEVANGSHU DATTA

Aluminium has a favourable price trend going into CY25. Aluminium prices, which averaged $2,381 per tonne in Q2FY25, have now recovered to $2,600 per tonne, driven by high alumina prices on global bauxite supply concerns, improving demand from China and revocation of export rebates on aluminium products from China.

Aluminium prices have been driven by record high alumina prices which squeezed smelter margins. This was due to a series of global supply chain disruptions amid better demand as aluminium production in China ramped up.

The cost of alumina accounts for over 50 per cent of the cost of aluminium, compared to historical levels of 30-35 per cent. Tight alumina supply may continue into early 2025.

Vedanta's demerger plans have been modified, but the metals and mining major looks to be a beneficiary of price trends in aluminium and zinc.

Vedanta has decided to retain its base metals company within Vedanta Limited since lenders think that would be more favourable for unlocking value and better debt allocation.

Vedanta plans to complete the demerger process in January 2025, with a share entitlement ratio of 1:1 for all its companies.