Natural rubber (NR) has its own domineering position in the industry owing to the superior technical performance of this natural elastomer over the synthetic counterpart and its demand will continue to grow aligned with growth of the tyre and vehicle industry, says Dr Lekshmi Nair, Head of Economics & Statistics of the Singapore-based International Rubber Study Group (IRSG). In an exclusive interview to Rubber Asia, she talks at length about the present challenges of the global NR industry in the context of the steep downturn in NR prices and about what is in store for this vital agro-industrial raw material in the days to come. EXCERPTS:
Do you think that factors other than the fundamentals of demand and supply have a major influence on rubber prices. If so please elaborate?
The fundamentals of supply and demand are the major drives for rubber prices. Market imbalance resulting from a disappointing global demand growth during 2012-15 (1.8 per cent) compared to an impressive 3.9 per cent during 2002-11 period caused losing the investor confidence in natural rubber as a financial commodity.
NR prices are also driven by factors other than market fundamentals, notably the price of crude oil, primarily because oil-based feed stocks are used for production of synthetic elastomer. Another factor influencing prices is the currencies of countries where rubber is traded. TOCOM is the primary market for rubber futures and trends in the yen would have an impact on NR prices. However, traded volumes on TOCOM have been in decline for a few years and exchanges in Singapore and Shanghai have started to take more market share. More generally, and like all actively traded commodities, investor sentiments can likely influence rubber prices beyond fundamentals in the short-term.
According to you, what would be the demand-supply scenario of NR in short-term, medium term and long term?
Bu hikaye Rubber Asia dergisinin January 2017 IRE Issue sayısından alınmıştır.
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Bu hikaye Rubber Asia dergisinin January 2017 IRE Issue sayısından alınmıştır.
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