Why Brexit Could Still Influence The Next Election

Given Brexit's disappointments, opinion on the question of EU membership hasn't changed - not that it helps the Tories

- Sean O'grady

Politics is very often about the mood music, about general impressions and the news flow. On the whole, people take an interest in it as far as it affects their own wellbeing, along with that of their neighbourhood or indeed the country; but they usually don't obsess about it, outside of pandemics or wars.

In recent months, rows about the Northern Ireland protocol have dominated the headlines on Brexit, along with worrying economic data. The latest to emerge comes from an assessment carried out by the London School of Economics (LSE) and think tank the Resolution Foundation. It concludes: "Brexit has had a more diffuse impact by reducing the UK's competitiveness and openness to trade with a wider range of countries. This will ultimately reduce productivity, and workers' real wages too." Jargon, but the basic message is that Brexit is making many people poorer.

So, roughly six years after the EU referendum, and coming up to three years after Boris Johnson became prime minister, how's Brexit going, do we think?

Leaving aside the actual (and usually still disputed) facts, the public don't seem all that impressed. Asked if they think, with hindsight, that it was right or wrong for Britain to vote for Brexit, about 43 per cent think it was right, and 57 per cent wrong (leaving aside some 13 per cent who said they didn't know).