How to Invest for a Recession
Kiplinger's Personal Finance|September 2022
A sharp decline in the stock market is often an indicator of an impending recession-that is, a temporary period of economic decline. With the S&P 500 index falling 1,000 points, or about one-fifth, from January through June, a consensus is emerging that a recession is coming, perhaps next year.
James K. Glassman
How to Invest for a Recession

Recessions have wildly varying durations and depths. The official judge is the National Bureau of Economic Research, which counts nine of them since 1960, lasting an average of about a year. Recent recessions have been the result of severe shocks to the system: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. The COVID recession was the shortest in history (two months) but the most intense (gross domestic product down by nearly one-third).

A 2022 or 2023 recession will be very different. If it happens, it will follow a more traditional pattern, triggered by the Federal Reserve Board raising interest rates sharply as a way to reduce consumer and business demand to tame inflation. For investors, there are three important facts about recessions:

They are uncertain. The Fed raised rates nine times from late 2015 to late 2018 without triggering a recession. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson once famously quipped that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions. Economists have a poor record, too, though two-thirds of them, including Samuelson's nephew Larry Summers, expect one next year.

They end. This is a critical point for long-term investors, who should keep buying stocks on a regular basis. Using a process called dollar-cost averaging, you can invest a set amount at regular intervals when stocks are cheaper, you can afford more shares.

They deliver opportunities. Finally, there is little shelter in the stock market from recessions, but at the same time, they offer remarkable opportunities.

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة September 2022 من Kiplinger's Personal Finance.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة September 2022 من Kiplinger's Personal Finance.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

المزيد من القصص من KIPLINGER'S PERSONAL FINANCE مشاهدة الكل
HOW INFLATION ADJUSTMENTS WILL AFFECT YOUR TAXES
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

HOW INFLATION ADJUSTMENTS WILL AFFECT YOUR TAXES

We looked at IRS rules for 2025 on everything from tax brackets to how much you can save in retirement accounts.

time-read
3 mins  |
January 2025
GUARD AGAINST IDENTITY THEFT IN THE NEW YEAR
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

GUARD AGAINST IDENTITY THEFT IN THE NEW YEAR

Scammers are getting better at impersonating legitimate businesses.

time-read
3 mins  |
January 2025
SHOULD YOU BUY PET HEALTH INSURANCE?
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

SHOULD YOU BUY PET HEALTH INSURANCE?

You can fend off big veterinary bills with a policy that covers your furry companion.

time-read
2 mins  |
January 2025
THE LOWDOWN ON BUYING A VACATION HOME
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

THE LOWDOWN ON BUYING A VACATION HOME

If you return to a beloved destination again and again, purchasing a home there may be a smart move-but don't overlook the costs and effort that go into it.

time-read
8 mins  |
January 2025
HOW COUPLES CAN MANAGE DIFFERING RETIREMENT TIME LINES
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

HOW COUPLES CAN MANAGE DIFFERING RETIREMENT TIME LINES

Staggered retirement is increasingly common, but it can create financial and emotional challenges.

time-read
7 mins  |
January 2025
AVOID THESE CREDIT MISSTEPS
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

AVOID THESE CREDIT MISSTEPS

KIPLINGER ADVISOR COLLECTIVE

time-read
2 mins  |
January 2025
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WORKING FOR YOURSELF
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WORKING FOR YOURSELF

Whether you're looking for a side gig or planning to start your own business, it has never been easier to strike out on your own.

time-read
10+ mins  |
January 2025
My Top 10 Stock Picks for 2025
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

My Top 10 Stock Picks for 2025

SINCE 1993, I have offered an annual list of 10 stocks with the potential to beat the market in the 12 months ahead. My 2024 selections notched the highest return ever: an average of 48.9%. I beat the S&P 500 index by 10.8 percentage points, and every one of my stocks was up-six by more than 30%.

time-read
4 mins  |
January 2025
WHAT MAKES AN ETF SUCCESSFUL?
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

WHAT MAKES AN ETF SUCCESSFUL?

EXCHANGE-traded funds have exploded in popularity, with the industry now reaching the milestone of $10 trillion in assets.

time-read
2 mins  |
January 2025
TIPS FROM INSIDERS
Kiplinger's Personal Finance

TIPS FROM INSIDERS

When corporate insiders buy or sell, it can offer clues on whether you should do the same.

time-read
4 mins  |
January 2025