Trump's Moment Of Truth

The coronavirus disaster couldn’t come at a worse time for a president seeking reelection

- By Joshua Green, with Christopher Condon and Jeff Kearns

As last year drew to a close, President Trump’s reelection prospects had never looked brighter: Impeachment was behind him, unemployment was at historic lows, the stock market seemed to hit a new high every day, and Americans who generally agree on little else felt pretty great about the state of the U.S. economy. Gallup found that 62% rated economic conditions “excellent” or “good,” the most in a decade. Nothing on the horizon indicated cause for worry.

Coronavirus changed that within a matter of weeks. Economic repercussions have traced the path of the virus with astonishing speed, first ravaging financial markets in China, then Europe, and finally the U.S. On Feb. 12 the S&P 500 hit a record high; 30 days later the index had plunged almost 30%, capped off by what was at the time the worst single-day decline since the 1987 “Black Monday” crash.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Trump’s political hopes. Academic research has consistently found that voters judge incumbent presidents based on the state of the economy in an election year—and that their impressions of economic performance solidify over the spring, which means now.

“In my model and most other forecasting models, the election year economy is critical,” says Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University whose election model has been among the most accurate. “And the second quarter seems to be what really matters in terms of shaping the outlook of voters heading into the election.”